Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.611099 12.181446 13.877971 15.843743 18.055362 20.463170 23.279479
2025-04-13 7.835081 9.845609 12.193164 15.123751 18.670204 22.808354 27.986656
2025-04-20 6.817634 9.071746 11.835277 15.448103 20.019196 25.580356 32.824690
2025-04-27 6.028813 8.445890 11.541243 15.756545 21.302003 28.297465 37.730782
2025-05-04 5.280723 7.746133 11.028053 15.661100 21.967174 30.175583 41.578380
2025-05-11 4.627562 7.086667 10.480373 15.433047 22.387745 31.702420 44.994171
2025-05-18 4.165061 6.635052 10.157697 15.455457 23.106202 33.617404 48.978314
2025-05-25 3.817886 6.309345 9.972426 15.635873 24.026907 35.824938 53.441719
2025-06-01 3.467950 5.938969 9.680486 15.620953 24.640314 37.603379 57.357702
2025-06-08 3.131046 5.551941 9.323974 15.468694 25.020006 39.038833 60.819694
2025-06-15 2.898937 5.309303 9.165678 15.597959 25.813498 41.096466 65.261763
2025-06-22 2.760629 5.208103 9.219643 16.055847 27.125854 43.974278 71.037138
2025-06-29 2.507352 4.890058 8.902247 15.904419 27.489167 45.457534 74.820961
2025-07-06 2.165526 4.380460 8.221903 15.102135 26.752553 45.194360 75.893469
2025-07-13 2.054804 4.279886 8.230913 15.454480 27.912571 47.950852 81.793535
2025-07-20 1.945070 4.169688 8.212206 15.752917 28.991685 50.617871 87.655579
2025-07-27 1.788668 3.953110 7.983270 15.661011 29.393546 52.190663 91.802931
2025-08-03 1.629098 3.713522 7.691394 15.431744 29.536463 53.330405 95.273372
2025-08-10 1.516734 3.558411 7.544690 15.454579 30.117056 55.218221 100.049877
2025-08-17 1.432702 3.453956 7.486066 15.634834 30.983269 57.620320 105.777272
2025-08-24 1.333616 3.306930 7.331638 15.619968 31.488399 59.414310 110.529473
2025-08-31 1.228702 3.136000 7.115088 15.467699 31.725802 60.742372 114.518340
2025-09-07 1.160531 3.040885 7.045113 15.596963 32.492350 63.028677 120.253922